Influx

The idea of using strategy to plan ahead seems almost impossible in these days of fundamental discontinuity.

Shell, the oil company, have been doing this for over 35 years, its helped them to plan ahead and understand potential geo-political futures. The process allowed them to predict the 1970s oil crisis and help Shell to plan for it.

At Shell, they call the process “Scenario Planning” and they are really serious about it. This rigorous process leads to the development of various potential scenarios for the future and often suggests responses to each.

Peter Schwartz, a member of the Shell Scenario Planning team in the early 1970s, now practices these techniques for corporate clients at the Emeryville based think-tank, GBN.

Recently, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Shell shared its scenarios for nations in 2005, with forum attendees.

The presentation highlights included;

- China is a key driver of change
- The main theme is lack of trust- in both corporations and in security
- Nations are being pushed by three poles- social cohesion, security and market-driven efficiency

- Three scenarios emerge:

Flag- policies of nationalism
Open Doors- alliances
Low Trust- lawyers rule with regulation overload

Obviously, this is a very macro tool, and this example is more useful for corporate planning.

However, the techniques and process of “Scenario Planning” can be varied and even applied to issues like the future of brands, advertising and even explored as part of the brand planning process.

Peter Schwartz’s book, The Art of the Long View, explains the process in some detail.