06/07/2009 08:07:27 AM
The recent NYT article on sales trends at Home Depot and Wal Mart has some great clues into how consumers are changing habits in the light of economic downturn.

1. Food stays on the list, clothes and furniture don't
2. People are trading down to private label
3. People trading down the protein ladder from steak to ground beef, others moving from beef to chicken and others moving from protein to carbs
4. The home is the focal point- cheap take out pizza and movies is the new form of entertainment- people aren't going out and they are not cutting back on their entertainment tech. Sales of the more affordable flat screen are holding up
5. Vegetable gardens are booming
6. People are trying to stay healthy on their own with out resorting to experts- this means increased sales of vitamins and OTC medicines.
7. They need relief for these troubled times so they are buying more sleep aids, pain relievers and antacids
8. Home repair is on the increase
9. People are not buying new cars, they are repairing and maintaining the ones they have
10. Parents are not transitioning their kids between diapers and underwear with pull ups, instead they are going straight to underwear


Posted by Ed Cotton

07/07/2008 08:29:41 PM
As Starbucks beats a retreat from several main streets and malls, it's relevant to point out the perils and dangers inherent on the "Starbucks Model".

Building out a single concepts at a rapid rate has been the formula that's grown many a successful American enterprise.

However, Starbucks was one of the first to do things differently, it built out a mass-premium brand and then became fixated on the idea that its premium had such stickiness, it could resist recessionary pressure.

It's not surprising considering the addictive nature of caffeine, but there comes a point in time when consumers start  to do the math; a $5/per day habit is $1300 annualized.

When you start to think of it that way, there are other things that could use that money, like gas, for example.

The venture capital companies looked at Starbucks with envy and searched for other premium concepts they could scale-up to a national footprint.

A new segment emerged called fast casual, to cater for all those consumers who were going to "trade-up" to better experiences. The same happened in other categories like home furnishings with new mass premium entrants arriving on the scene.

Obviously, luxury is under threat, but it's the relatively new mass premium space that faces the greatest threat of all because it was to supposed to siphon dollars from middle class consumers who wanted a taste of the good life.

It now appears those same consumers are starting to question the value of let's say a PF Chang's experience, over a local Chinese take-out or perhaps even a Trader Joes' stir fry.


Posted by Ed Cotton
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